Time Series Forecasting
Forecasting can be done on time series using some models present in R. In this example, Arima automated model is used. To know about more parameters of arima() function, use the below command.
help("arima")
In the below code, forecasting is done using the forecast library and so, installation of the forecast library is necessary.
R
# Weekly data of COVID-19 cases from # 22 January, 2020 to 15 April, 2020 x <- c (580, 7813, 28266, 59287, 75700, 87820, 95314, 126214, 218843, 471497, 936851, 1508725, 2072113) # library required for decimal_date() function library (lubridate) # library required for forecasting library (forecast) # output to be created as png file png (file = "forecastTimeSeries.png" ) # creating time series object # from date 22 January, 2020 mts <- ts (x, start = decimal_date ( ymd ( "2020-01-22" )), frequency = 365.25 / 7) # forecasting model using arima model fit <- auto.arima (mts) # Next 5 forecasted values forecast (fit, 5) # plotting the graph with next # 5 weekly forecasted values plot ( forecast (fit, 5), xlab = "Weekly Data" , ylab = "Total Positive Cases" , main = "COVID-19 Pandemic" , col.main = "darkgreen" ) # saving the file dev.off () |
Output :
Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
2020.307 2547989 2491957 2604020 2462296 2633682
2020.326 2915130 2721277 3108983 2618657 3211603
2020.345 3202354 2783402 3621307 2561622 3843087
2020.364 3462692 2748533 4176851 2370480 4554904
2020.383 3745054 2692884 4797225 2135898 5354210
Below graph plots estimated forecasted values of COVID-19 if it continues to be widespread for the next 5 weeks.
The R code initializes a vector x
with weekly COVID-19 case data from January 22, 2020, to April 15, 2020.
- The
lubridate
library is loaded for date manipulation, and theforecast
library is loaded for time series forecasting. - A PNG file named “forecastTimeSeries.png” is set as the output file for the upcoming plot.
- A time series object
mts
is created with the COVID-19 case data, starting on January 22, 2020, using thets()
function. - The code utilizes the
auto.arima()
function to build an ARIMA forecasting model (fit
) for the time series. - The next 5 forecasted values are obtained using the
forecast()
function applied to the fitted model. - The code plots the original time series along with the next 5 weekly forecasted values, and the resulting graph is saved as “forecastTimeSeries.png.”
Time Series Analysis in R
Time Series Analysis in R is used to see how an object behaves over some time. In R Programming Language, it can be easily done by the ts() function with some parameters. Time series takes the data vector and each data is connected with a timestamp value as given by the user. in R time series analysis this function is mostly used to learn and forecast the behavior of an asset in business for a while. For example, sales analysis of a company, inventory analysis, price analysis of a particular stock or market, population analysis, etc.
Syntax: objectName <- ts(data, start, end, frequency)
where,
- data – represents the data vector
- start – represents the first observation in time series
- end – represents the last observation in time series
- frequency – represents number of observations per unit time. For example, frequency=1 for monthly data.
Note: To know about more optional parameters, use the following command in the R console:
help("ts")