Trends in Demographic Transition in India

What is the Demographic Transition Theory?

This theory studies the changes in the population of a region as it moves from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates when it progresses from being a society with low technological, economic and educational development to one with advanced technology, education, and economic development. The theory suggests that the population growth of an area is linked to its overall level of economic development it aims to explain universal principles that govern how human populations develop in size and structure as a result of industrialization; These changes occur in stages that are collectively known as the demographic cycle. The theory is also used to characterize and forecast any area’s future population. The demographic transition should be viewed as a generic description of the evolutionary process rather than a ‘rule of population expansion.’...

History of the Demographic Transition Theory

The concept of Demographic transition was coined by Warren S. Thompson (1929) and later popularized by Frank W. Notestein (1945) in the mid-twentieth century, and has since been expanded upon by many others. By 2009, the existence of a negative relation between fertility and industrial development had become one of the most widely accepted theories in social science. The demographic transition hypothesis is characterized by important transition stages. The shift from high to low birth and death rates in societies may be separated into mainly three stages; Although some researchers, divide it into four or five stages as well, as they talk about a ‘pre-transition’ and ‘post-transition’ phase, but here we only discuss the main stages that are covered under the NCERT Class 12 syllabus. These stages are listed in the table below:...

Stages in Demographic Transition Theory

The three stages of the demographic transition hypothesis are explained in detail below:...

Criticism of Demographic Transition Theory

The theory of Demographic transition has been widely questioned among scholars in the academia, despite the hypothesis being extremely popular. The first flaw of this theory that scholars agree to, is that it is entirely based only on factual data or the experiences of Europe, America, and Australia, and not other continents of the globe aka it is not inclusive and hence cannot be deemed applicable to all. It has also been pointed by scholars that, in the theory is that the transition stages may not necessarily be in chronological order. For e.g.- former USSR nations (other than Russia) experienced a rise in mortality rates and entered the first stage of the demographic transition from the second and third stages of the demographic theory. The demographic transition hypothesis also does not take into account, migration which is a huge determinant of population growth. Some scholars feel factors like technological advancement, especially in the field of medicine, in relation to their ability to slow death rates, has been over exaggerated in the theory. The theory also does not provide a time range for a country to go from one level to the next and is very vague about the transitions. Crucial variables that influence fertility rates has not been given importance in the theory....

Trends in Demographic Transition in India

Population growth in India has slowed in recent years as the annual growth rate has significantly gone down when compared to last decades, due to the consistent decline in India’s fertility rate since the mid 20th century. States like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Kerala and Delhi show low fertility levels whereas UP, Bihar, MP, and Rajasthan are still showcasing high fertility levels. India is predicted to witness the proportion of its young population decline and the proportion of its elderly population increase, over the next 20 years, thanks to low fertility rates and higher life expectancy. Southern states in India will age faster and Northern states will have a longer window of demographic dividend....

Conclusion – Class 12 Geography Notes Chapter 2 Demographic Transition

The demographic transition hypothesis looks into the relationship between economic growth and population growth. It examines variations in the birth and death rates, as well as the population growth rate, in relation to the growth and development process across regions. Despite its flaws, it has provided us with a generalized model to explain population growth trends across countries across the globe and helped enrich the discipline of demography and all of social sciences in general....

FAQs on Class 12 Geography Notes Chapter 2 Demographic Transition

What is Stage 2 of demographic transition?...