Understanding the Prophet Model
The general idea of the model is similar to a generalized additive model. The “Prophet Equation” fits, as mentioned above, trends, seasonality, and holidays. This is given by,
y(t) = g(t) + s(t) + h(t) + e(t)
here,
- g(t) refers to trend (changes over a long period of time)
- s(t) refers to seasonality (periodic or short-term changes)
- h(t) refers to effects of holidays to the forecast
- e(t) refers to the unconditional changes that is specific to a business or a person or a circumstance. It is also called the error term.
- y(t) is the forecast.
Time Series Analysis using Facebook Prophet
Time series analysis is one of the important methodologies that helps us to understand the hidden patterns in a dataset that is too related to the time at which it is being recorded. The article aims to explore the fundamentals of time series analysis and demonstrates the analysis using Facebook Prophet.
Table of Content
- What is Time Series Analysis?
- Facebook Prophet Library
- Understanding the Prophet Model
- Need of Facebook Prophet
- Implementation – Analyzing Time Series Data using Prophet